
Commentary September 2026
Fall, my favorite season of the year, is here…at least I think it is. When the season actually begins is hard to say. In the Northern Hemisphere astronomical autumn begins September 22nd at 8:04pm. Really? So, at 8:02pm it is summer, but at 8:04pm it is autumn? Maybe that is true in astronomy but not here on the ground in Indiana. Meteorological autumn began on midnight September 1st, but I don’t think any of us woke up that morning and said, “Hey, fall is here!”
Maybe what is significant is when does it feel like autumn to YOU? Maybe you need to feel a chill in the night air, accompanied by the scent that leaves have when they begin changing color and falling from trees. There might be the sound of rustling in the trees caused by the wind hitting brittle leaves. Maybe you need the smell of woodsmoke in the air from someone using their fireplace for the first time in the season. Maybe a football game on TV or a cozy mystery to read accompanied by a mug of hot cocoa. Any or all these things can make us feel that autumn has arrived. I think this year it will be especially welcome.
This past summer our region experienced a great deal of severe weather. On June 11th an EF-3 tornado touched down causing widespread damage. Exactly two months later, August 11th, we experienced multiple EF-1 tornadoes, a derecho (a word many of us didn’t know until August 11), flooding, and multiple and extended power outages. The August storm caught most of us off guard because the tornadoes and the derecho that tore through our region were not predicted. As part of a dynamic system, they are impossible to predict. The most meteorologists can do is inform us that the conditions are in place for such things to form. They may form or may not. That is why the warnings come so close to the actual event. Until a tornado forms, there is no tornado.
A weather system never exactly repeats itself. There are always differences. This autumn will be unlike all other autumns. This Halloween could be rainy, snowy, or sunny. A few days from Halloween meteorologists are close enough to make a guess. It may be an educated guess, but it will be a guess, nonetheless.
Uncertainty is frustrating, which I understand all too well. In my work, I live with it every day. I can look at company XYZ and say that the conditions are right for the stock to increase in value. Will it? I can no more be absolutely certain of that than the weatherperson staring at the radar. The financial markets are classic examples of dynamic systems, which has never stopped people from trying to come up with predictions. This was the Holy Grail.
In the mid-2000s certain hedge funds embraced “quants,” genius-level mathematicians who designed computer programs that were supposed to contain every bit of financial data. These programs knew the price of every stock in the world at any given millisecond. They knew interest rates from every part of the globe. They knew money supply, foreign exchange rates, and every commodity price. With all of this data, and sophisticated formulas based on quantum mechanics, these programs were expected to predict market behavior. For a brief while it looked promising. Until August 2007 when the programs failed and caused what became known as “the quant meltdown.” The firms that relied on these methods failed and lots of people suffered severe financial loss. They tried to account for everything but something was always missing. The problem is there are an infinite number of variables that can affect the market.
We see this in consumer sentiment data. A person looking for a new car decides to hold off because prices seem too high. Then another person reaches the same conclusion. Eventually markets will be affected. Every month economists predict unemployment numbers and are always surprised when they are wrong.
These are the difficulties I encounter in my line of work every hour of every day. Yet, people still want to know what we think markets are going to do. While we can’t predict what markets will do on any given day, we are still able to make informed decisions. Because of the decades of experience, we have behind us at the Maar Financial Group, we have a good sense of probability. That enables us to focus on the bigger picture, which is what you, as long-term investors, care about.
Just as you don’t know for sure when you will feel it is finally autumn, as October rolls around you know it is coming. That is the bigger picture. You have a lifetime of September and October experiences to guide you. So too for us at the Maar Financial Group when it comes to markets. Because of our decades of experience we can construct a custom plan, with you and for you, that will be balanced between risk and reward and will reflect our awareness of just how changeable the markets and the seasons of life can be. It will not be focused on what will happen today, just as it is not significant how many leaves have changed color today. We prepare for what the market will bring, just as you will prepare for fall.
Because of this planning, you can relax on a chilly October night, the smell of autumn leaves and wood smoke in the air, and say to yourself, “Yes, autumn has finally arrived.” Indeed, it has. Remember what dynamic systems teach us; this particular autumn will not come again.
Enjoy all the pleasures that this glorious season has to offer.
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The concepts presented are intended for educational purposes only. This information should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or product.