
MFG Winter 2026 Commentary
February is often referred to as “the dead of winter,” and I can understand how it may seem that way. On bitter cold mornings when I take the dogs out, everything can seem deathly quiet. There is no sound: no birds singing, no leaves rustling — just the sound the dogs and I make in the frozen stillness as my boots crunch a path through the snow. Yet, in reality, our snow-covered landscape is far from “dead.” It only appears that way to us humans who are limited by our sense of sight and sound. If we had the hearing of the Grey Owl we would hear the heartbeat of animals even if they were under a foot of snow. If we had the eyesight of the American Eagle we could detect a bird on a branch from over a mile away. After a snowfall, we may see the tracks of rabbits, squirrels, deer, and all sorts of animals. Ones we never heard or saw. Even on these bitter cold mornings there is much life going on all around us. Trees and plants are already preparing for the spring that will soon arrive.
Nonetheless, a sense of peace exists in the quiet stillness. Then the dogs and I go inside where I check the morning news and suddenly, I’m bombarded by many, sometimes alarming, headlines. The mornings’ peace dissipates quickly, replaced with the effort it takes to sift through the events from the previous day. Being constantly connected via the internet and the 24-hour news cycle can leave us feeling overwhelmed and anxious. I have first-hand experience with this, because as the day goes on, clients will be asking how these news stories will affect the markets. I will often have to answer in absolute honesty, “I have no idea.” The truth is once again our human nature can mislead us. Humans look for patterns and find comfort in believing they can detect cause and effect. That is usually just as much an illusion as standing in a still winter landscape in the dead of winter.
The headlines are representative of just a tiny fraction of “events” that have happened in a narrow band of time. Over a 24-hour period how many events take place that have the potential to cause people to buy or sell in what we call the market? Dozens, hundreds, thousands, or even millions of events? Whatever the number actually is (and no one knows) very few of these events will actually make the news.
It is all too easy to be alarmed by news stories that cause uncertainty and it’s only natural to worry that these events may affect our financial security. But the impact of any event will be altered by countless other events happening at the same time. This is what is known as “market dynamics,” which is a technical term for “the unknown.” And there are different types of unknowns. When he was Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld was criticized for saying there were “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns.” This may have sounded strange, but he was making a valid point, one that very much influences market dynamics.
There are things that we know will happen at some point; we just don’t know when. Those are the “known unknowns.” At some point the Fed will adjust the prime lending rate, either up or down. At some point a major company will announce record profits or losses. We know these things will happen, but it is foolish to try and peer into the future and attempt to predict. The “unknown unknowns” are when events we couldn’t possibly foresee take place. These could be natural disasters or something caused by human behavior such as the attacks on September 11, 2001. Events, predicted or not, can have the power to move markets. But acknowledging that to be true is a far cry from claiming one can discern cause and effect. And what of unintended consequences?
One striking example is what happened when the Great Chicago Fire of 1871 reduced the thriving city of Chicago to a smoldering ash heap. Experts predicted this would be the end of Chicago as a major American city. Instead, it became a tremendous opportunity for the city to be made new, and within a decade Chicago was rivaling New York as the most important American city. Any event can have effects that even the most informed experts cannot imagine.
Even though the cause and effect of market dynamics can be murky, at Maar Financial Group we take all of this into account as we fashion your financial plan. This is why it is important for you to work with professionals. While there is no crystal ball that tells us what the effects of an event will be, we know that over the course of time there will be changes, even sudden changes, in markets. We don’t pretend we can predict specific events, but we can predict that markets evolve and that is built into the planning we do. Of course, we monitor the ever-changing financial landscape, but we don’t react to every shifting trend. A trend is defined as a “preference that many people follow, a shift to something new.”
We don’t chase or follow trends. Trends can be as illusory as “the dead of winter.” Our thinking is long-term, because over the long-term events achieve a clarity lacking in the short-term. A term for this is “purposeful investing.” This approach frees you from worrying about every headline and allows you to focus on things like meaningful friendships, helping others, and enjoying family. These are the sorts of things that don’t make headlines. But in life they are the things that actually matter. It can be easy to lose sight of that when caught up in the endless news cycle. We can help make sure this doesn’t happen to you. Thrivent is a diversified financial services organization that helps people achieve financial clarity, enabling lives full of meaning and gratitude. Thrivent and its subsidiary and affiliate companies serve more than 2.3 million clients, offering advice, insurance, investments, banking and generosity products and programs over the phone, online as well as through financial professionals and independent agents nationwide.
Thrivent is the marketing name for Thrivent Financial for Lutherans. Insurance products issued by Thrivent. Not available in all states. Securities and investment advisory services offered through Thrivent Investment Management Inc., a registered investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC, and a subsidiary of Thrivent. Licensed agent/producer of Thrivent. Registered representative of Thrivent Investment Management, Inc. Advisory services available through investment adviser representatives only. Thrivent.com/disclosures.
The concepts presented are intended for educational purposes only. This information should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or product.